This unit will focus on the potential positive and negative effects of AI in the present and future. First, we’ll explore the concept of transformative AI and discuss the potential AI might have to transform our society. We’ll examine the promise of AI systems to boost productivity, automate scientific progress, and make systems more efficient. We’ll also take a look at what the companies building AI are saying about the potential for their systems to change the world.
Then, we’ll turn to AI’s potential perils. Many leading AI scientists and entrepreneurs have called for mitigating “the risk of extinction from AI” to be “a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.” Whether or not AI’s harms escalate to extinction, AI could contribute to global-scale misuse, conflict, and accidents.
The field is far from having consensus on the nature, scale, or likelihood of different anticipated benefits and risks. Still, responsible policymaking should be informed by the reasons why many experts are hopeful, and why many are concerned. The nature of today’s capabilities – and how they might lead to tomorrow’s promises and perils – is the focus of this unit's resources.
Note that due to this unit’s focus, many of the resources come from individuals and groups who are directly involved in the development, deployment, and implementation of AI systems, or those who are incentivizing such work. We think it is important that policy professionals understand what these actors are saying about their work and what incentives drive them to pursue it. You should keep this in mind when evaluating the merits of their claims.
It’s extremely important to finish all of the resources in this unit. It’s hard to know what goal your policymaking should aim for without understanding what today’s technology might be able to do in the future.
